Here is a quick recap of what went down last week.
Needless to say, last week was really good, in the bad kinda way…which is still good!!!! Here’s what I mean.
Wednesday the CPI numbers came in just below what was expected which means we could actually be seeing the beginning of the flattening of inflation that’s required before a REVERSAL in inflation. This is a welcome sign right now.
The PPI numbers came in lower than expected and THIS TIME had the negative sign before the number. For those of you who have been following our inflation talk and it’s impact on rates, you know that we need to see negative PPI numbers in order to see negative cpi numbers which eventually will help bring reduced rates back to the market…it just takes time. THIS was a really good PPI reading!
The Federal Reserve’s Meeting Minutes were released and this is when we found out that everything was pretty much as Jerome Powell delivered on March 22. No big changes in the notes means that he was pretty upfront and transparent during the press conference about what the Fed’s plans were BEFORE the SVB failure, and what they have to adjust POST SVB failure in order to accomplish their goals while also shoring up confidence in the banking systems stability.
Friday The retail sales data was worse than expected and contraction in this sector was already the base expectation. This is where the rubber meets the road. Consumers spending less money pulling back eventually causes prices reductions at the retail level which thus reduces inflation. This is what the Fed wants to see. Even though they have to say things like “easing in consumer spending” what that really translates to is “we need to see y’all make retail sales go negative for a bit”
But despite retail sales figures coming in negative, the preliminary consumer sentiment was higher than expected. So we have Consumer inflation possibly cooling, producer inflation going negative, retail sales in the negative…but sentiment is up?….weird right?
So let’s quickly cover what coming up this week: Comparatively, it’s going to be like a mini-vacation.
Monday is the Empire state manufacturing index
Tuesday we get Building Permits & Housing Starts
Thursday Unemployment Claims & Existing Home Sales come out
Friday Flash Manufacturing PMI & Flash Services PMI
So what does this all mean for mortgage rates Andy?
Mortgage rates continue to show signs of getting better, but bit by bit. People who are ready to strike while the iron’s hot are actually seeing their offers get a good solid look with sellers, and those who are willing to sell are still getting the price they want because some of the cost of borrowing money has eased since the highs of Summer and fall of 2022.
The limited economic data coming out this week means the market is expected to function with minimal interruption that could uproot this most recent progress. In general though, please remember that we are still in what we call the “needs-based market”. If you are unsure what you should be doing over the next 12 to 24 months with your property, please let us know when we can discuss this with you to create a game plan that best suits your family’s personal financial needs.
Wherever we can help you win in mortgage and real estate we want to help you win. We want you to feel confident about your financial future when it comes to your mortgage options and your real estate holdings. Tell us how we can help!
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