Boy oh boy this weeks show has a LOT packed in it. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported that the mortgage delinquency rate fell to its lowest level since it began tracking this metric 43 years ago, supporting claims the economy is on the cusp of a turnaround – but is it?
Affordability fell across the board due to surging home prices. The median sale price in high-opportunity neighborhoods grew 100% since 2012, while the median sale price in low-opportunity neighborhoods jumped 174%.
Fannie Mae’s most recent “Home Purchase Sentiment Index” (HPSI) reveals 82% of consumers reported that it’s a “bad time to buy” a home, a new survey high. It’s up from 78% in June. That’s a bad sign for real estate.
There are about 10% fewer homes on the market now than there were in 2022 at this time. In 2022, mortgage rates climbed rapidly and inventory climbed rapidly. That’s the Altos Rule. When mortgage rates eased down in the beginning of the year, so did the available inventory of unsold homes. Now, rates are not falling. They’re staying stubbornly higher around 7% so inventory hasn’t yet started its decline for the fall. Look for that decline to start in September with fewer sellers, unless rates jump like they did last September. Mortgage