Welcome to a brand new week and welcome to a brand new show! We hope that you had an awesome Christmas season and a wonderful safe new year and we are already going to jump into 2023 with a bang with the introduction of the new Monday Mortgage minute format.
As you’ve been seeing in previous formats we talked about what happened in the prior week in the mortgage industry and in the markets as well as what’s coming up this week and the impact it will have on mortgage rates.
All that will continue but we’re also going to be adding in a little bit more context and detail to describe and follow the story arc of economics overtime and it’s measured impact in the mortgage industry as we better plan and prepare for this entire year of 2023 to be a little bit different than the years that led us here in a tighter market, with more fed involvement expected, and the fight of inflation continuing all while the real estate and mortgage markets position themselves for an abnormal year.
Today I want to announce that we have just launched the Mortgage Heroes podcast!
Each week William Brian and I will discuss the latest topics in real estate, share trends and observations, opinions, and insights on what we see happening here in the local real estate market in San Diego as well as abroad across the nation from the front lines of the industry.
You can check out our brand new show on Apple Podcasts and Google Play
If you have not followed those pages or not subscribed and turned-on notifications for YouTube do that so that every time we distribute new content you hear about it first.
Coming into the new year we realize that there will be a greater sense of needing access to us, our decades of experience, our knowledge attained from thousands of transactions and our firsthand account of working inside the market during abnormal times.
If at any time you find yourself watching our video or listening to a show and you need help or have questions, please reach out to us so we can understand your particular scenario and decide with you how to best help.
We know that not all decisions coming into the new year will be easy, however we do make every decision alongside our clients with the mindset of what we can do today to create the tomorrow that you desire.
We Also wanted to make our content easy to share so you will additionally find short versions and show clips easily accessible on social media to share with friends, family, coworkers, and anyone else you know who needs to win in mortgage and real estate in 2023.
With that let’s get on to this week’s market outlook!
The economic calendar is going to waste no time with a bunch of big headline information coming out the very first week of the year.
On Wednesday January 4th we’re going to get the ISM manufacturing number as well as the JOLTS job openings number before the big one of the day which is the FOMC meeting minutes.
For those of you who are new to this show the Federal Reserve meets 8 times per year and roughly three weeks after their meeting they release their prior meeting minutes which is a detailed record of the most recent meeting that provides in-depth insights into the economic and financial conditions that influence their vote on where to set interest rates.
Also, the market looks at any terminology or word changes that they used from their previous meeting notes to indicate any sentiment change or policy change that could be on the horizon.
This will be a very sought out day of economic information.
Not to be outdone, Thursday January 5th we get the ADP non-farm employment change.
Around here we normally talk about the nonfarm payroll regularly but the change in employment is important to determine the trajectory of the job market. With Jerome Powell’s recent statements saying that we need to continue to see a softening labor market, this new year will bring about great focus to any changes in employment good or bad in relation to the statements that he has made publicly.
Remember, he has stated numerous times that in order to beat inflation we need to have a softening labor market, which is code word for we need to see more unemployment.
And on Friday January 6th we will have another bulk of employment information with average hourly earnings, nonfarm payroll employment change, the unemployment rate and the ISM services PMI.
All of these weigh in on the general health of the labor markets and are going to come out of the gate swinging in this very first week of the year and possibly even set the tone for the entire month of January and where the markets go.
As this relates to mortgage interest rates expect that they are going to have a medium to high volatility impact.
As this news comes out most people who trade in the mortgage space are going to be coming back to their trading desks for the first time since before Christmas and it’s likely that there may be low volatility due to it being only the first week of the year and an entire years’ worth of data to consider and where we’re going and how quick we’re getting there.
That being said, if you are in escrow right now and you are looking to lock your loan, you could find a day this week where market rates dip down in your favor and you have an optimal time to lock your loan.
Thank you so much for tuning into the NEW Monday Mortgage Minute.
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We’ll see you again next week!