Inventory heats up! Along with Sentiment AND Demand

We’re not even in the full swing of Spring yet and ALREADY the real estate market is heating up. Inventory began surging in some parts of the country, mortgage demand confirms BUYERS are ready to get into homes. All this adds up to Sentiment hitting levels not seen since March 2022!

A Deep Dive into San Diego’s Tight Market, Median down payments, and obstacles facing aspiring homeowners

A recent industry article came out specifically about the San Diego real estate market and just how tight it REALLY is. This goes hand-in-hand with the newest National Median Down payment data release and the major obstacles facing aspiring homeowners in 2024. We know there’s no easy way out of the current set of conditions, but we’re going to do our best, we’re going to bring solutions to the table, and we’ll encourage our clients and partnerships along the way!

What you can learn from a millionaire renter, and how to save the California housing crisis

The market is wasting NO TIME in 2024. Renters and homeowners alike are feeling bounced around by market shifts, uncertainty and a changing landscape that’s got a lot of people scratching their heads. The questions then become: What can we learn from a millionaire renter? Why are existing home sales rising while rates are too? And how do we fix the California housing crisis?

Shoppers are gearing up for the Spring Home-Buying season

The Spring/Summer buying season is already upon us, BUT bold predictions of mass uncertainty are shifting conversations and decisions already. With more and more homeowners staying in their homes for much longer than before, will you be hunkering down in 2024 – or will you be GOING FOR IT to make this year the most memorable of your real estate ownership experience.

Is Homeownership REALLY the latest humble brag?

A article came out just in time for valentines day that asserts homeownership could be the latest humble brag, but is it really? We agree and disagree on this while also batting around the idea of accessing Home Equity, insurance companies leaving homeowners high and dry in high risk areas, and review the latest loan delinquency data.

The Fed holds the line while home prices increase!

Clashing factors are digging their heels in when it comes to housing. The Federal Reserve held rates as expected, but rising housing prices have voters putting the pressure on legislators. Who will budge first, Fed Policy or Policy Makers?

Mortgage Rates are creeping up, but Demand is too?

It may seem counterintuitive to think that demand would increase at the same time that rates are inching back up again. But once we look at the data, and we match that with our borrower’s sentiment, goals and personal aspirations…it makes sense. And what about that generation that’s hunkered down and aging in place?…Is this normal, abnormal, and is it a fad or the new trend among retirees and soon to be retired?

Bidding Wars Round 2, Price Drops ease up, and Serious Mortgage Delinquencies lowest since 1999

If you told us in 2023 that we would see the return of buyer bidding wars, the number of homes experiencing price drops would be in decline, and that serious mortgage delinquencies lowest since 1999….we probably would have laughed. But here we are at the end of January and this is REALLY happening in the market. While we can’t ignore the other signs that could spell trouble in the months and quarters ahead, it’s work making a pitstop on these results to ask ourselves – WHAT THE HECK IS ACTUALLY GOING ON IN THE REAL ESTATE MARKET!?!

School District’s attempts to provide housing, and how 2023 snubbed the haters!

As we declared in 2023, we are going to see some very creative solutions come to the market as we confront the highest interest rates in 22 years, lowest affordability in more than 40 years, and home prices not giving up! A few school districts are testing a new model that could help provide housing to teachers, but will it work? And is it a model for the future of housing educators? If this model is successful, can the same strategy be applied to other industries?

Overall the housing market ended the year much stronger than most people were expecting, and we also discuss what makes Gen Z a different kind of homebuyer. Spoiler alert, some of what they care about most isn’t what you’d think!

Mortgage and Real Estate are ALREADY flexing on 2024

You probably didn’t hear that refinance applications went on an absolute tear last week did you? Well, they did. Applications to refinance a home loan jumped 19% from the previous week and were 30% higher than the same week one year ago. Yup, 30% higher than the same week in 2023…and that’s not even when rates hit their peak in 2023. To me this suggests 2 things: 1) That people have warmed up to the market rates being the market rates so if you wanna access home equity you’re gonna have to take the rate that’s offered; and 2) Homeowners are likely refinancing because the HAVE too, not because they WANT to. Whether it’s cash out to pay off debt, build an ADU, or finance some other ambition…refinances are here!

And next lets talk about home prices. Sorry internet trolls, but home prices are already on the rise as we can see from the 2023 year end data. Fueled by that darn decline in mortgage rates, national home prices ROSE 5.2% during the month of November. Clearly demand for housing is there, and even if you wanna make the argument about inventory keeping prices high, you still have to have an answer for why buyer behavior has them willing to pay more than they might have just a few months prior. Yes, math and the ability to even qualify plays a part here, but what we’re really seeing is EXACTLY WHAT WE WERE TALKING ABOUT – If the Fed is actually finished raising rates, and signals cuts in 2024 then mortgage market see rates would start declining, buyers will come off the fence and that demand will keep prices high, or push them even higher.

And speaking of home prices, lets talk about the percentage of homes sold that have price cuts as part of their story. If you didn’t know a “normal” range for percentage of listings that experience a price cut is 30-35%. So 2023’s 36.5% of homes experiencing a price cut isn’t all that bad even though it falls just outside the range of normal. But we have to remember, this includes all that time when mortgage rates were their highest in 22 year and prices STILL didn’t make this reading rocket into outer space. So what’s that mean for 2024?….Less homes experiencing price cuts. With mortgage rates easing up, and inventory thawing out, the demand still exceeds the supply and the projected percentage of homes to experience a rate cut this year is only 32%. That’s a lot of margin for error in case that turns out to be wrong, and still within the rage of what we traditionally consider “Normal”.

So with that, let’s take a quick look at what’s coming up in the markets this week.

Monday the markets will be closed.

Tuesday we get the Empire State Manufacturing index

Wednesday we get Core retail sales and retail sales month over month, and more importantly we get the national association of home builders market index and THIS is probably gonna look pretty good!

Thursday we will get unemployment claims, Philly Manufacturing index, building permits and Housing starts. This is definitely the most data packed day of the week.

And Friday we have Preliminary Consumer Sentiment, Existing home sales and Inflation expectations.

Thanks again for tuning in to Monday Mortgage Minute.

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